We are all awed by the latest events in Europe, a war on the European continent can cause us strangeness, but for them, it is a return to the origins, because for centuries Europe has been the scene of wars that have lasted for years (Some have reached 100 years).
War is never good, especially when it involves innocent civilians (as is the case with the current one), but here we want to evaluate the war from a practical point of view, without pretense of giving one of "Geopolitical Analyst", my intention is to put on the table some information and clear personal OPINIONS on the subject.
The Principle of Conflict
The armed conflict between Ukraine and Russia has been going on since long before the current century, and I will not go into such ancient details, just know that the capital of Ukraine (Kiev) was the first capital of the Russian Empire, said that, already hinted that the conflict takes MANY, BUT MAAANY howevers and buts.
That said, the "Modern" disagreements began there in 2014, when the pro-Russia president was ousted at popular request in a wave of protests that became known as "Euromaidan", with that of Yanukovych, this ran to the Russians for help, and help came with the invasion of Crimea.
With the removal of the president from power, a new election had to be held, on the one hand, Petro Poroshenko, the Chocolate King and pro-European Union multimillionaire, and on the other side, Yúlia Timochenko, multimillionaire in the oil and gas business, pro Russia. Poroshenko won, and initiated, pro-EU changes, including formal requests to join the European Union as a fixed member, no longer as an "observer" state.
Follow the Money!!
Now that we have a say in what happened, let's talk about the money.
Yes, Money!
Or do you think Putin would start a war, risk his country (and even his head) for something worthless like giving a lesson to the Ukrainians? Fight Nazis%&s? Protect Russia from the Ukrainian Iluminati? NO!
The Russian Petronation
After the fall of the USSR, Russia was bankrupt, humiliated and disorganized, but it has (and always possessed) many mineral resources, and among them there is one that the whole world knows we need, and I'm not talking about oxygen or water, I'm talking about Oil! and their derivatives, of course.
The reconstruction of the Russian economy, as well as its Arsenal and of course, its government, was all financed by Oil and Gas, to exemplify, these derivatives account today for 40% of the Russian trade balance, and look that it produces many Grains and Ores, including are the largest producers of titanium metal.
Its consumer market, of course, is Europe, especially Germany, which alone consumes 70% of the gas exploited by Russian wells, thus representing a GIGANTIC share of Russian earnings.
Another feature that this focus on oil derivatives has, is that it manages to bring A LOT of profit, and is a fairly targeted profit, so it was using the oil and gas resource that Russia reinvented itself as a petronation.
A new competitor emerges
Recently, Ukraine (Look our protagonist) discovered two gigantic reserves of gas (which together would amount to 2% of the world's known gas reserves) and another giant oil reserve in its maritime territorial extension.
This is a flea behind the ear for Russia, which has already been disasided with Ukraine for charging tariffs for sending Russian gas through pipelines that pass through its territory, but to make matters worse, Ukraine is still flirting with the European Union, crazy to get a place among them, which in addition to being a blatant disrespect to Mother Russia,who has always taken such good care of Ukraine, but is also part of what the Russians consider their "Sphere of Influence".
The East Gas Reserve is called "Donetsk Gas Reserve", I am sure that this name is familiar to all who are following the latest events, Donetsk is precisely one of the two "countries" that want to become independent to then be governed by the iron hand of Sovié.... I mean, Russians.
Of course we have other factors such as Russian Security, or perhaps the fact that the Russian people consider Ukraine a "part" of theirs, but believe me, Estonia not only entered the European Union, but also entered NATO (Such so owed by the Russians), and they did not start a war there, and look at Estonia (as well as Latvia and Lithuania, nato members) borders Russia.
I am not saying that the fact that Ukraine wanted to enter NATO and the European Union had no influence, it certainly had. I am stating that only this would not be reason, what is happening, is that Ukraine (Different from Estonia or Poland) has an energy potential that can and WILL compete with Russians, especially if it is exploited with European investment, and this my friends, Russia can not allow.
In short, this is an economic war
We are seeing the course of the first economic war of the 21st century, a war in which anything goes to get your hands on the valuable oil wells and in the pockets of the Germans for their much-needed Gas.
We are seeing the Russian mafia reacting to international competition for its greatest good, the gas, this gas that it wants to sell to Europe and of course, to China.
We are seeing Russia use as arguments "national security" and "sphere of influence" to dominate future competitors, limiting the options of European countries as to their supply of energy sources and of course, heat.
And finally, we are seeing the effectiveness of "Follow the money" in a Russian decision-making that will forever change the course of how Europe, and of course the world, makes decisions about its borders.